vortex (vor' teks) n.
1. A spiral motion of fluid within a limited area.
2. A place or situation regarded as drawing into its center all that surrounds it.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Netflix or RIMM: Which is Worse? Its Close

Comparing Netflix ($NFLX) to Research in Motion ($RIMM) Isn't Quite Right
Both stocks had very bad days yestereday.  Netlfix' bad day started before the market opened and Research in Motion's bad day started after the market closed.  However, that is where the similarities end.

Netflix' troubles have been highlighted here.

Netflix Has a Brand Name, Research in Motion Doesn't
There is hope for Netflix at some level, i.e. it can still form partnerships with media companies in exchange for equity.  It can try to secure licensing agreements for content in international markets (unlikely, since the blueprint already exists).  In other words, Netflix has a brand name which needs to be levered into returns for equity holders.  Fast.
Research in Motion, however, is in a huge amount of trouble.  It is rapidly becoming irrelevant in the smartphone market, as it gets dominated by Android phones and of course, the iPhone.  Enterprise email/server infrastructure?  Being bypassed although it will be a while for the largest companies to entirely shift this infrastructure away from Blackberry due to security issues.  If this gets moved to the cloud in a viable way, it will mean the death knell for RIMM.

Worse: RIMM is Running Outta Cash
It has been widely publicized that the RIMM tablet is a disaster, and that the marketshare of RIMM's smartphones is dropping.  Perhaps most telling is the fact that RIMM itself used 50% of its cash in the last quarter, including something like $750 million on Nortel's patents.  The return on those bids better come quickly, because management has lost the faith of the investing community.
RIMM's backers suggest that the enterprise franchise and patents make RIMM a value play.  Granted, the enterprise franchise could be worthwhile but the problem is that users don't want to use Blackberrys, other than the 60 year olds who have been using them for 10 years.
Patents is another matter.  People mistakenly believe that these are very valuable.  Well, lets like the courts decide.  Has Apple launched lawsuit after lawsuit attempting to block the sale of the Playbook?  No.  Apple has its sights set on the Samsung Galaxy Tab.  Apple knows that Samsung is Apple's only viable competitor, with not only design but production capabilities as well.  RIMM?  Not worth of Apple's attention.  That is all you need to know about the value of RIMM's intellectual property.

Correction:  Netflix and RIMM Do Have Something in Common
Both are sells, and while you can daytrade or do whatever you would like in the very short term, and will remain so until any of the facts above are proven to be wrong. VWAP, EMA, SMA, Bollinger, MACD: all of them will merely be numbers that get sliced through unless something dramatic occurs, and soon.

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