vortex (vor' teks) n.
1. A spiral motion of fluid within a limited area.
2. A place or situation regarded as drawing into its center all that surrounds it.

Sunday, November 27, 2011

"Hello. Emerging Markets?", It's Me, Ms Lagarde (Updated)

The Crowd Doth Protest Too Much, Methinks
Universal derision of the reports that the IMF is readying a 600B Euro rescue plan for Italy are all over the internet right now. The US has, historically, been the largest contributor to the IMF. Most of the protestations are related to the idea that the IMF, and the US, do not have that kind of money to help Italy. Yeah, true. But, there are others....

Possibility: Asia Would, and Should, Answer the IMF's Cash Call
Forget the past, and the fact that the IMF has helped basically every emerging market country in some shape or form over the past 30 years. The fact is that now, right now, Asia has more than enough foreign reserves, and national pension money to be on call in a revolving credit line, should the IMF require. GIC Singapore, and their counterparts in China, Korea, Taiwan, etc have more than enough money to collectively be on call for a revolver.
The key point here is that the IMF is not the ECB. The credibility of the ECB is waning by the nanosecond. However, the IMF is different, and if you believe that Asia doesn't consider that credibility, then you are being short-sighted when considering what can actually be done.
Last thing: if you know the Chinese mentality, they know this is a long game with many iterations. Even if they want to win over the long run, Eurozone depression isn't the best way to achieve that from the Chinese perspective either. While the concept of schadenfreude may exist in every culture, Confucian ethics don't focus on this in the least.

(Update) Don't Think The IMF Can "Get Away With This?" Think Again.
Oh please. TARP was &750 Billion. POMO who the hell knows how large. Bloomberg reports secret loans to banks resulted in $13B extra profits (i.e. extra handout). Now, experts are telling us that the IMF doesn't have the capacity/ability to muster up $750B?? You must have missed "current events" in Current Events class; we have just been through 4 continuous years of actions that would have been called "They cannot get away with this."

In short, the suggestion above may not occur, but to summarily dismiss the IMF would also be erroneous. The protestations to the IMF rumor are too violent. A couple of phone calls are all that are needed, and the IMF has the credibility to make those calls. For now.

Update (Nov 30): China Lowers Reserve Requirements
China lowered their reserve requirements by 50 bps in a move to head off a weakening global economy. The PBOC has joined the global PPT. This does make sense. Read the passage from the original post:

Last thing: if you know the Chinese mentality, they know this is a long game with many iterations. Even if they want to win over the long run, Eurozone depression isn't the best way to achieve that from the Chinese perspective either. While the concept of schadenfreude may exist in every culture, Confucian ethics don't focus on this in the least.

The Chinese are now intertwined in the global economy. Add that to their own domestic issues, such as the loan losses at banks and weakening real estate prices, it makes complete sense to address stimulating its own economy, and attempting to pull the global economy with it. So while direct loans to the Eurozone are not yet in order, this is China's first step. With their foreign exchange reserves, China has plenty of bullets to spare.

No comments:

Post a Comment